Paleologos poll Trump Biden unlikely voters: National polls indicate a 50-50 split between Biden and Trump among likely voters. This means unlikely voters, often excluded from polls, could be crucial in the 2024 election. Around 90-100 million eligible U.S. voters are unlikely to vote. Knowing their preferences and information sources is crucial.
A recent poll of non-voters by Suffolk University found that their behavior and tastes have changed since 2005. In 2018, a poll found that a generic Democratic candidate would have won against then-President Trump. But a recent poll shows otherwise. Trump leads among unregistered and unlikely voters.
One major change is how non-voters access political news and information. One-third of non-voters now use social media like Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok. This is a significant increase from 2018. TV news networks’ impact decreased from 52% to 36% during the same period.
While many non-voters dislike political parties, about 70% believe the United States requires additional parties. But their view of the news media has worsened. In 2018, 55% of unlikely voters viewed the news media negatively. In 2019, 68% of unlikely voters had a negative view.
President Biden must work hard to excite non-supporters about his return. When describing Joe Biden, many people used negative words like “old,” “time to retire,” “doing a bad job,” “puppet,” “corrupt,” or “confused.” 55% disliked Biden; among unlikely voters, only 21% liked him and 61% didn’t.
When asked who could get them to vote, only 10% said Donald Trump, while 2% each said Bernie Sanders, Michelle Obama, Robert F. Kennedy, Barack Obama, and Ron DeSantis. Only 1% mentioned Biden.
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Unlikely voters could make a difference, but 40% said a “better choice/honest candidate/someone I like” is needed to get them to the polls. This suggests that neither Trump nor Biden may fit that description for many. 16% said they didn’t trust the election process and “nothing/need a miracle” would get them to vote.
In a strange turn, 13% of non-voters cited reasons like “election is rigged/corruption/unfair/don’t like voting process/mail-in ballots” for not voting. These ideas are like Trump’s past five years. This suggests that some supporters have lost faith in the election process.
As the 2024 election nears, the evolving dynamics among unlikely voters highlight the need to comprehend and engage with this significant and potentially influential group. Their preferences, aversions, knowledge sources, and emotions determine outcomes.
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